电子烟行业的前景现在是怎么



目前国内电子烟市场处于“三无”状态:无明确监管部门、无专门法律法规、无质量标准和准入门槛。多年来,控烟领域的专家、行业协会等均在呼吁相关法律法规的出台,而这一状况或在近期有所改变。按照项目周期推算,电子烟国家标准将于今年10月发布。

中国深圳是电子烟最大的生产集中地,出口的电子烟占世界总产量的90%以上,从目前的的情况来看,早期进入者实力优势比较明显,在行业的知名度和发展前期都比较好,能够获得更多的优质订单。而后期进入者,包括众多的中小企业和贸易商,由于规模实力都比较低,往前推进进度缓慢。

尽管我国生产了全球90%以上的电子烟,但国内消费市场依然较小,电子烟在我国的普及率还远低于欧美等国,电子烟行业呈现需求中心在欧美、制造中心在中国的全球产业链格局。

电子烟的明显优势在于口味,无需点火,时尚潮流新奇,雾化量大,有害物质较香烟大大降低等等,而根据调查显示,国内时下年轻人对象正是电子烟的受众群体,他们更趋向电子烟产品,国内电子烟替代传统烟草市场发展前景十分广阔。

未来电子烟市场增长主要来源于小烟产品,新群体呼唤新品牌,新品牌与新渠道形成双向需求关系;电子烟2.0已经到来,CBD市场为雾化世界打开新的空间。我不知道还要用多少个“新”来描述电子烟行业,但我知道它远不止于这些描述——当新的成为旧的,新的新将远超今日的想象。

电子烟是新型烟草制品的一种,而新型烟草制品主要分为四个大类:以JUUL为代表的电子烟,以IQOS为代表的加热非燃烧烟草制品,口含烟和其他烟草制品(鼻吸、贴片等)。电子烟可分为小烟、中烟和大烟,小烟为烟弹式的仿真烟,采用气动开关不需要按钮操作;中烟为雪茄大小,使用ego烟杆;大烟的特征是使用18650型号的锂电池,直径约18mm,长度约650mm,大烟的雾化器和烟杆特性明显。加热非燃烧烟草制品以IQOS为主,是菲利普莫里斯国际研发的烟草加热系统,由于使用真正的烟草而不是烟油,IQOS的口感非常接近真烟,适用于各国烟草的强监管政策。

从全球市场来看,电子烟产业呈现生产中心在中国、需求中心在欧美的局面。中国生产了全球95%以上的电子烟,而国内的电子烟消费的全球占比不足5%。由于欧美地区的电子烟产业经历十余年发展已相当成熟,预计未来中国电子烟制造商将会有同样的进化趋势:充分提炼品牌价值(即上游环节抓烟油研发,中游环节抓产品设计,下游环节抓销售渠道),生产制造环节全部外包。

从国内电子烟产业链来看,上游零部件市场主要涉及雾化器、电池、烟油、发热组件、控制电路等产业,目前呈现较高集中度,国内电子烟http://www.vapeyan.com/制造厂商采用的烟油与电池主要依赖进口,雾化器则大多从麦克韦尔等国内厂商采购。

由于电子烟处于高速爆发时期,上游雾化器厂商产能紧张,良品率较低也是制约产能的重要因素,行业平均良品率约在60%-70%。下游销售市场则以线上直营和代理为主,由于国内监管政策的不明朗,线下销售渠道承担的政策风险较强,尚未形成销售规模,需求端的消费者则以专业玩家、爱好者、送礼者、替烟者为代表类别,对电子烟提出多样化的需求定位。目前位于中游的国内大部分电子烟生产商是采用OEM、ODM的商业模式,随着市场日渐成熟,分散的电子烟生产行业未来将走向整合,最终形成高集中度的产业龙头。

电子烟作为新消费赛道重要的一款产品,可以有很多的操盘手法和玩法。限于发展时间过短,目前三家公司的潜力性尚未完全展现,蓝洞将持续关注,我们也将继续关注产业链上下游不同背景的电子烟品牌以及电子烟供应链。

在移动互联网大量普及和体验式消费兴起后,中国所有的消费行业都值得重做。蓝洞新消费很乐于看到越来越多具备互联网背景的人加入到消费品行业,也乐于看到更多的消费品从用户体验角度出发,结合新渠道新营销推出更好玩的产品。

受限于政策、用户习惯、渠道建设等因素,目前中国电子烟消费市场尚未完全打开,2017年中国电子烟市场规模约为6.7亿美元,平均增速约为24%。参考2012年美国禁售电子烟败诉、监管政策放开后,全球电子烟市场的高速增长(平均复合增速43%,于2016年达到最高增速68%),以及品牌目前的渠道建设可能在下半年到明年给销量带来强的正反馈,预计在2020年中国电子烟市场增速将达到未来五年的最高点,未来五年国内电子烟行业平均增速将高于世界平均增速43%,2024年有望突破百亿美元规模。

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