[公告摘要]免费试用平台促销用户促销微信



羊毛党终于盯上了电子烟。

他们活跃在发布会上、免费试用平台里,以及促销的微信群中。通过免费体验的形式,有用户批量领取电子烟。“家里的抽屉一打开,各个品牌的电子烟几乎全都有。”

渠道商也杠上了电子烟。

千烟大战来袭,渠道成为了香饽饽。有人爱搭不理,有人坐地起价,也有人趁火打劫。在电子烟冗长的产业链条里,每个参与者都要进来分一杯羹。

尽管四到五倍的加价率是行业通行惯例,但在线下售卖中,经过经销商层层分销,售价的80%都让给了渠道;线上的情况也不乐观,由于传统卷烟禁止在线上销售,用户线上购买电子烟的习惯也并未形成,触达人群有限。目前,电子烟品牌商的铺货重点仍在线下,在对渠道的争抢过程中,一些品牌商拿出低于成本价的折扣力度,激发恶性竞争。

有电子烟创业者吐槽,“C端薅羊毛,B端拿补贴。我觉得电子烟这样下去,最后会把一个很赚钱的行业,搞得大家都没钱赚。”

烟草,是一个万亿级别的大市场。电子烟,被业内视为下一个值得追逐的大风口。跨界网红纷纷入局电子烟,更让人觉得这门生意有利可图。

电子烟到底有多赚钱?一个看似暴利的行业,为何被做成了亏本的生意?燃财经(ID:rancaijing)为你拆解电子烟。

01

真假万亿市场

要看清电子烟市场究竟有多大空间,我们不妨先看看资本的立场。

2018年6月,悦刻拿着IDG和源码资本的3800万元投资,打响了电子烟大战的第一枪。一年时间过去了,资本对电子烟赛道的热情丝毫未减。

过去一年,国内电子烟企业融资情况

电子烟的特殊之处在于,从产品形态上看,它属于电子消费品;从功能用途上看,它属于烟草。而在大众的认知里,烟草是一个垄断且暴利的行业。

2018年,中国烟草行业全年工商税利总额达11556亿元,其中1万亿上交给国家财政。这是一个极其庞大的体量,当年全国税收总额也不到14万亿。另外,中国的烟民数量已超3亿人,这3亿人口都将是电子烟的潜在用户。

那么,具备替烟功能的电子烟,究竟有多大的市场空间?

数据来源 / 国盛证券研究所

根据国盛证券的研究数据,全球烟草市场规模按7700亿美元计算,在电子烟的市场渗透率为1.56%的情况下,电子烟的市场规模为120亿美元。当电子烟进一步蚕食传统烟草行业,渗透率达到3%时,市场规模为231亿美元。

具体到国内,中国烟草总公司一年的总收入如果按1万亿元计算,当电子烟市场渗透率为1%时,电子烟的国内市场规模为100亿元。多位业内人士告诉燃财经,中国的电子烟市场,目前还处在非常早期的阶段。过去很长时间里,国内电子烟的渗透率都不到1%。

渗透率成为决定电子烟市场规模的关键指标。在大洋彼岸的美国,这个比例已经达到13%。这意味着,国内至少还有超过1000亿元的市场增量空间。

启宸资本投资副总裁赵杨博向燃财经表示,2019年国内的小烟市场,市场规模至少有100亿元。长期来看,这至少是一个千亿以上的市场。他认为,现在电子烟的核心用户并不是老烟民,实际上年轻人的比例很高。未来传统卷烟不可能完全消灭电子烟,而电子烟也做不到完全替代卷烟,这会是两类共存的产品。

从1%到13%的过程,有可能诞生一家市值百亿美金的公司。实际上,美国电子烟公司JUUL,在去年底的收购案中,估值已经高达380亿美元。这家公司成立不足4年,在美国的市场占有率从2015年的2%,一路增长到2018年底的76%。

图 / 视觉中国

这是中国玩家的机会。即使不是万亿规模,千亿目标也并不遥远。

另外,从消费品的标准来看,电子烟几乎具备了一个合格快消品的所有要素:刚需、高频、复购、高周转。业内常用手机产业来类比电子烟。有电子烟创业者问,“既然手机产业能互联网化,那为什么不能用互联网的打法,去打掉电子烟?”

因此,一批从互联网跨界而来的创业者,在资本的加持和裹挟下,一头扎进了电子烟的赛道。他们押注的,是下一个真假万亿市场。

02

绕不过的渠道商

传统烟草的刻板印象,让电子烟也被贴上了暴利的标签。

在终端售价上,目前市场上主流的换弹式电子烟套装,通常售价为299元。深圳某电子烟品牌的创始人刘辉东向燃财经透露,大部分电子烟品牌均是委托代工厂以加工贴牌的方式生产,这类型套装的出厂价格为60元左右。四到五倍的加价率,是行业通行惯例。

但即便如此,最终留在电子烟品牌商手中的利润也不多。实际上,目前国内的电子烟行业,距离“暴利”还有点远。

和烟草不同的是,传统卷烟市场被垄断,消除了行业竞争,产品的利润空间极大。而电子烟所在的,是一个充分竞争的市场。

刘辉东介绍,正常情况下,一款市面售价299元的电子烟,一级经销商拿货价120元,二级经销商拿货价150元,三级经销商180元。层层分销,每个环节都要“吃掉”一部分利润。120元到299元之间的利润空间,全部让给了渠道。

这还是在理想状态。在品牌竞争过程中,实际给到经销商的价格要更低,补贴力度可以低至三折甚至二折,导致品牌商利润被大幅压缩。有品牌商亏本卖烟杆,试图通过烟弹的复购挣钱。

铂岚电子烟创始人兼CEO孙海铭用“235”来形容电子烟产业链的利润分成模式。“品牌利润20%,贸易商利润30%,终端利润50%。国内市场,大致如此。”这意味着,进入流通环节的电子烟,利润的80%都分给了渠道。

但在当前阶段,品牌商无法绕过渠道,直接通过线上触达消费者。“大家不买账,没有人买,” 鲸鱼轻烟创始人兼CEO邱懿武对燃财经说。他发现,直接面向C端用户的销售,效果并不明显,而且线上的流量成本高,转化率低。

渠道成了当前阶段电子烟品牌商攻打市场的利剑,占据了电子烟产业整个定价的主要环节。

图 / 视觉中国

“这盘生意的核心在终端动销,现在电子烟需要终端协助教育市场。”益爽电子烟联合创始人刘会琳向燃财经表示。

以鲸鱼轻烟为例,邱懿武将铺货的重点从线上转到线下,通过渠道的广覆盖来打市场。他在泛3C渠道布局了100多个各级代理分销商,网吧就覆盖了2000多家。另外,夜场、便利店、数码市场等渠道也是他的布局重点。

电子烟品牌HIMOP、北京海曼普公司总经理余磊认为,“早年美团做外卖,滴滴做打车,都是靠补贴烧钱来买流量。电子烟的媒体广告投放被限制,品牌商为了获取流量,只能将利润让给渠道。”

有电子烟业内人士向燃财经算了一笔账。在品牌商激烈竞争的情况下,一套毛利30元的电子烟,每个月要至少卖掉5万套,才能覆盖掉售后、推广、人员等成本,实现盈亏平衡。然而,“真正一个月能卖5万套的品牌也没几个。”

03

钱都被谁赚走了?

优质渠道似乎在一夜之间成为了香饽饽。大众眼中的“暴利”,是被渠道赚走了吗?

邱懿武举了一个例子,他带着团队去商场谈一个摊位,对方一听是电子烟企业,就死死咬住价格,一分也不松口。“他们就觉得你电子烟企业都是非常有钱的,而且你不来做,其他家抢着要,你爱要不要。”这让邱懿武感到郁闷,有一种被打劫的感觉。

刘辉东说,有电商平台已经找上门来,邀请他对今年双十一进行广告投放。“他们就说今年双十一电子烟肯定会打得很激烈,反正感觉全世界都觉得电子烟企业都超有钱。”

另一方面,各品牌对代理商的相互挖角愈演愈烈。刘辉东透露,挖角的形式一般是,“先会找人打探,然后就去拜访,然后找人牵线,最后就让出更多折扣,打价格战挖角。”

在对渠道的争抢过程中,品牌商拿出低于成本价的折扣力度,激发恶性竞争。

有品牌在获得融资后,将利润全部砍掉,进行终端补贴。用户购买两盒烟弹,可以免费送一个烟杆,烟杆半年免费换新。但高比率的退货率,加上高昂的售后成本,让品牌不堪其重。

图 / 视觉中国

在铺货的过程中,有部分品牌对代理推出免费铺货政策,免费拿货,卖不掉再退回。这带来了严重后果,卖不掉退回的产品,全部变成了品牌商的库存,挤占了现金流,进一步变成亏损和负债。因为产品质量问题而引发的售后纠纷,则让代理商对品牌商又爱又恨。

“很多企业可能会选择跟共享单车一样免费铺货,但是如果产品品质和运营动销没跟上的话,就会跟无人货架一样,最后一地鸡毛。”邱懿武说。

还有一些代理商摸清套路后,跑到深圳委托代工厂,迅速推出一个自己的品牌,最后发现产品卖不动,就开始降价、甩卖、亏本清仓。

邱懿武有苦难言,“电子烟行业看着很赚钱,但是每个环节的利润并没有想象中那么高,可能到最后变成不怎么赚钱的行业,反正现在一股热,上下游都是挣电子烟品牌的钱。”

那么,渠道的日子过得怎么样?

在爵妙电子烟首席运营官Andy看来,渠道商现在也有危机。他表示,夜店、网咖游戏厅、便利店、数码产品店,这四大电子烟终端零售网点,目前对电子烟的接受度还不够高。“在一些二线城市,可能你跑十家,有五到六家会拒绝你,然后还有两到三家,告诉你会考虑一下。”

终端市场没有铺开,带来的直接后果就是,渠道商和代理商拿的货没办法出货,导致压货严重。

赵杨博表示,现在大部分品牌的主要任务还是铺货。但问题在于,把货铺给了代理,不代表渠道能卖出去。压低利润甚至亏本甩出去的货很多砸在了代理商手里,代理往往不会现款现结,这导致很多品牌都在烧自己的现金流。

福禄一位省级总代向燃财经说,“代理就是个老黄牛,利润很薄。我们总代是两头受气,上承品牌,下承代理。要想让下级代理跟你玩,就要让出更多利益。”

代理商和渠道商挣的是渠道差价,线下有好几拨人分钱。各级代理,各种终端,最后才到消费者手里。如果销量上不去,那么渠道中的利润将无法放大。这就意味着,不仅是品牌商,渠道各个环节也很难赚钱。

另外,专业羊毛党已经盯上了电子烟。

邱懿武发现,现在每做一场电子烟活动,就会发现一大群羊毛党,通过免费试用等形式,大量领取电子烟产品。“这些人活跃在各种试用平台上,你会发现,好多用户家里的抽屉一打开,各个品牌的电子烟几乎全都有。”

04

电子烟还能火多久?

一个看似暴利的行业,却被做成了亏本的生意。刚走上资本快车道的电子烟,还能火多久?

漏油,几乎是目前让所有电子烟品牌头疼的问题。“一盒套装,四个烟弹,两个是漏的。”有电子烟用户反馈。而保证烟弹不漏油,竟然也开始被部分电子烟品牌作为产品的宣传点。

问题在于,烟弹的复购,才是电子烟品牌商未来能否盈利的关键。刘辉东透露,一个烟弹的成本几块钱,但售价平均在二十多块,是利润率最高的。

但目前市场并未形成高频率复购。在赵杨博看来,目前电子烟品牌突围一共有三条路。一是花大钱砸在营销上,通过营销的方式让用户获得对产品的认知;二是把自己的利润压缩得极低,甚至赔钱先去抢占渠道;三是沉下心来做产品,通过产品的品质来打品牌。但目前绝大多数品牌走的都是第二条路。

虽然罗永浩、朱萧木、蔡跃栋等自带流量的互联网红人,给电子烟增加了不少曝光度。福禄、魔笛、山岚等头部品牌,在音乐节等活动上进行了大量投放。但国内市场的反馈却是慢热和漫长的。

“关键是量,量没起来,电子烟赚钱都是空谈。”在余磊看来,电子烟能否盈利的核心在于销量。销量太低,就无法覆盖成本,无法盈亏平衡。

图 / 视觉中国

另一个无法回避的问题是政策监管,这在很大程度上取决于监管部门的立场。

7月22日,国家卫建委规划司司长毛群安表示,必须严格加强电子烟监管。他强调了电子烟对健康的危害,并表示卫健委正会同有关部门开展电子烟监管的研究。

中国烟草也是摆在电子烟企业面前的一座大山。余磊认为,现在国内的电子烟行业还太早期,中国烟草尚未出手。“一个政企合一的超级巨无霸在那摆着,你考虑过它的感受没有?现在还不到同行之间相互厮杀、图穷匕见的时候。”

赵杨博认为,未来电子烟可能会有三种走向。第一是政府会实行牌照制,开启市场准入,对于电子烟品牌而言,这是最坏的情况。第二是实行税收制,将电子烟作为电子产品来管制,但以烟草的标准去征税。第三是政府对电子烟上游进行管控,比如将最核心的原材料尼古丁盐管控起来。

但无论如何,一个明显的趋势是,越来越多的互联网人才,正在涌入这个行业。不论是悦刻汪莹,还是福禄朱萧木、小野罗永浩、YOOZ蔡跃栋,都是经验老道的互联网人。另外,前拼多多高级公关副总裁郭光东、前斗鱼市场公关高级总监方辉,都已经加入电子烟行业,将更多的互联网玩法运用在新一轮营销大战中。

电子烟到底有多赚钱?可以得出的结论是,目前这并非一门暴利生意。

电子烟:http://www.vapeyan.com/

文章来源:电子烟,如若转载,请注明出处:http://www.hhdye.com/1177.html

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