电子烟的异常“生态圈”



生态圈.jpg

导读:随着出口业务高速增长奠定订单基础。国内政策监管变化,驱动电子烟营销和渠道出现质的转变,提升认知度和试吸率;消费习惯逐渐培育。预计未来以中烟主导的市场体系构筑竞争进入壁垒。
中国电子烟资讯消息:随着出口业务高速增长奠定订单基础。国内政策监管变化,驱动电子烟营销和渠道出现质的转变,提升认知度和试吸率;消费习惯逐渐培育。预计未来以中烟主导的市场体系构筑竞争进入壁垒。
1、我们认为电子烟在海外市场的快速发展主要由三个因素驱动:
1)需求驱动。吸烟人群健康意识提升,寻找更为健康环保的卷烟替代方式。电子烟外观时尚,开发社交功能等,吸引非吸烟人群消费。

2)政策监管环境变化,驱动营销和渠道的进步。以北美市场为例,在美国联邦法院宣布FDA败诉后,电子烟在营销和渠道上均有质的突破。宣传方面,公开广泛的营销大大提升产品认知度;渠道方面,产品在线下零售渠道广泛铺开,推动了购买的便利性。

3)领军企业推动市场发展。2011年后海外电子烟行业出现整合潮,集中度逐渐提升。领军企业通过产品创新和积极的营销策略,引领市场发展。如美国市占率第一的Blu通过产品改进(口感、外观、社交功能等的开发)和渠道扩张(零售渠道由1.2万个扩张至10万个以上),收入规模由2011年的5000万美元增长至12年的1.5亿美元(2013年前三季度已经达到1.77亿美元)。日烟与Ploom联手推出低温非燃烧性产品,细分定位,快速抢占市场份额。

2、参照海外,国内电子烟市场也具备快速发展基础;预计未来发展仍由中烟主导。需求方面,消费者对健康的重视,以及新生事物的追求使电子烟具备民间消费基础。监管方面,预计国内政策监管环境也将趋同于海外,以鼓励为主。竞争格局角度,因国内尼古丁等原料受到严格监管,且实行烟草专卖制度,中烟系统在香料配方、宣传资源、零售渠道(超过500万个零售网点)等方面均享有先发优势,预计未来国内电子烟的规模化发展仍由中烟体系主导。这对与中烟公司长期合作、拥有渠道优势的烟包企业如上海绿新、东风股份及劲嘉股份新业务的发展构成利好。他们也有望借渠道优势整合目前国内分散的电子烟产业链,提升行业集中度。

股价表现的催化剂:国内政策环境的变化、电子烟身份的合理界定、以及线下销售渠道的丰富。

核心假设风险:电子烟在国内的接受和流行过程费时较长。

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