电子烟立法或10月落地 预示行业监督来了

好像突然之间,各界多地都开始对电子烟严加看管。不似之前的“表面监管”或口头劝导,9月25日,美国马萨诸塞州宣布即日起全面禁止销售电子烟。这之前,9月18日,印度政府宣布将全面禁止电子烟。视线转向我国,7月底,国家卫健委会同有关部门进行了电子烟监管的研究。根据电子烟产业界的预测,电子烟的立法最快可能于10月份落地。这似乎预示着我国电子烟强力监管时代也即将到来。

电子烟监管的到位最受关注的自然是行业前景,实际上说到电子烟产业前景不能不聊电子烟的产生原因,我国是世界上最早推出电子烟的国家,自2004面世以来也是得到了市场的快速响应。非常有趣的是,很多人认为电子烟是近些年的潮流产物,殊不知在十年前作为戒烟产品,电子烟已经火爆过一段时间。

并且,对比十年前和今天的电子烟发展,电子烟已经具备了多种属性,首先依然是戒烟产品属性;其次是其表现出的“安全性”,由于并没有科学证据表明电子烟危害性确实小于传统卷烟,我将其称为表现出的“安全性”;除此之外,诸如减少卷烟消费、扩大抽烟场景(部分禁止卷烟地方可以抽电子烟)以及减少二手烟等等。在当下,电子烟的潮流属性不能完全忽视,越来越多的青年甚至并不是烟民,因为所谓的安全、无瘾而涉足电子烟。因此,电子烟直至目前还是颇具发展前景的。

但前景和机会不能等同,前景在于其拥有市场空间和发展潜力,但并不是说所有企业都有发展机会。不过,值得一提的是,由于电子烟的发明距今已有十余年,电子烟在制造工艺或者说科技含量上来说,并不具有很高的市场壁垒,也正是由于这个原因,市面上涌现出了大量电子烟企业,天眼查企业数据库显示,近4年,每年新增电子烟企业都超过了1000多家。

就电子烟市场而言,传统烟草企业同其他企业具有同等的地位,平等的机会。不过,在未来监管的趋势下,这样的平等或将被打破。

公民对于电子烟行业被监管是有着迫切需求的,之所以到今天才提上日程,究其原因可从三个层次来看,监管难,体现在监管何物、如何监管、监管有效性。电子烟的双重属性,即戒烟(安全)属性与其危害属性共存,这是监管一直失位的主要原因,而随着更多的数据和研究表明电子烟的戒烟作用是“虚有其表”后,相当于赋予了监管外部合法性;此外,是如何监管问题,电子烟虽然冠以烟之名号,但说到底还不同于烟,行业内统一的制造标准还没有一定的共识,同时执法部门缺少对于电子烟认识较为专业的人才,这都阻碍了监管的落位。不过,毫无疑问,监管的目标是极为清晰的,即对于电子烟安全性的考量,从这个意义上来讲,未来更多的监管将是对工业生产流程以及各原料的限制指标予以规定,同时针对广告诱惑性给予一定的限制。

那么,在监管的背景下,或许传统烟草行业将会有这市场上明显的竞争优势,并且借助已积累的社会人脉与烟民基础,烟草行业旗下的电子烟产品将会有不错的发展,也就是说,监管的出台可能不会影响行业发展,但会影响市场上的企业。

有一点也需要注意,那便是电子烟的商品属性,由清华大学公共健康与技术监管研究课题组完成的《公共健康与技术监管研究报告之电子烟产业监管状况报告(2019)》显示,中国是全球电子烟产品最大生产国(占全球95%份额)与出口国(占全球90%份额),在国际市场上具有一定的话语权和定价权。因此,仅从我国的对外贸易上来讲,国际上对于电子烟的看法可能也会影响到我国的电子烟政策。

仅从我国来看,未来电子烟http://www.vapeyan.com/不会受到大的影响,但行业集中度应该会逐渐增强,并且,随着监管落位,相关的标准将会推出,届时,自由散漫、不加节制的发展将会得到遏制,电子烟的戒烟属性可能再次居于首要位置。最后笔者还是要提一句,吸烟有害健康,凡事要适度。

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