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电子烟包装行业的深度剖析

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导读:包装行业是消费品的影子行业,由于多种原因,从去年开始,相关公司一直站在了风口。包装行业虽然没有技术壁垒,行业集中度也低,但行业的需求稳定,尤其是互联网的发展使得包装行业的增速很快。
中国电子烟资讯:包装行业是消费品的影子行业,由于多种原因,从去年开始,相关公司一直站在了风口。包装行业虽然没有技术壁垒,行业集中度也低,但行业的需求稳定,尤其是互联网的发展使得包装行业的增速很快。
包装行业分为纸包装、金属包装、塑料包装和玻璃包装。包装行业虽然几乎没有技术壁垒,行业集中度也低,但行业的需求一直都很稳定(利基),特别的,近几年随着互联网的发展使得包装对于广告营销功能的重要性凸显,纸包装行业的增速很快。另外金属包装行业的集中度提升趋势也是非明显。不难预见,一些拥有客户资源、技术、资金优势的大包装企业,未来将成为寡头企业,通过兼并收购继续提升行业集中度是大概率事件(包装行业近年并购不断)。
特别值得关注的是纸包装和金属包装两个子行业。其中纸包装使用范围最广泛,2013年产值近5000亿(占整个包装产值37%),成长速度也很高,06-13年产值CAGR19%,竞争格局分散(4000多家企业,TOP10集中度不到10%,与欧美差距明显);而金属包装广泛应用于饮料食品领域,2013年产值1280亿元,成长最快(CAGR21%),企业1700多家,Top5 份额不到20%。
消费品的影子
1.行业背景:近10年包装行业15%左右的年复合增速,未来可维持。纸包装占比约40%;金属包装占比约20%;塑料包装占比为30%,玻璃、木材包装仅占很小比例,且市场渐渐萎缩,有被其他包材替代趋势。西欧、美国、亚太分别占全球包装市场的份额为30%、20%、25%。日本、中国、印度是亚太地区最大的市场,其中中国增速最快。
2.行业格局:消费品行业的增长是包装行业的主要拉动力量。查了一下资料过去十年我国消费品年复合增长大概在14%,而包装行业的年复合增速大概为15%,二者增速高度一致。逻辑也很好理解,每生产一个消费品大概就需要对应生产一个包装品,所以要记住包装行业其实就是消费品的影子行业,这一点结论对具体标的进行投资的时候非常关键。
3.细分行业:
①纸包装:增速是最快的。行业内规模以上企业很多,竞争激烈,行业平均毛利率14%,销售净利润率5.8%。纸包装主要是国内的企业,外资企业较少。上市公司为:合兴包装、美盈森。
纸包装又分为低端和高端包装。其中低端产品占据了90%的市场份额,低端纸包装主要是用于暂时储存(纸箱、纸盒),市场竞争激烈,毫无壁垒可言,供求端很难缩小,所以毛利和净利都不高。
需要重点关注的是中高档产品,主要是电子电器类包装,这类产品的特性是1.考虑运输的安全性,强度,防潮要求高;2.电子产品的外观。中高档纸包装毛利率能有25%。
②金属包装:增速是最低的,但行业集中度最高,规模企业数量显著少于纸包装行业,行业平均毛利率13.3%。主要是外资主导,主要上市公司:斯莱克、奥瑞金、中粮包装。可根据斯莱克这个细分的公司作为整个行业的参考:我国的易拉盖高速生产设备一直依赖进口。因此,近20年来,基本稳定集中由3家美国公司STOLLE、DRT 和STI 垄断。其中STOLLE在综合实力及市场占有率方面在行业内均处于领先地位。
③塑料包装:增速比较快,平均毛利率是三者最高的,接近17%。从发达国家市场来看,集中度低于纸包与金属包装。主要是行业特点决定了其产品同质化强,并且因为密封性要求不高,行业也没有什么技术壁垒,更别提生产、管理的差异了,所以这个行业基本没有大公司。主要上市公司:永新股份、通产丽星、紫江企业、申达集团。

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