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深圳"泛烟"网点背后:电子烟的内忧外患 | 中国电子烟网

深圳“泛烟”网点背后:电子烟的内忧外患



这是一个风口。
 
今年年初,电子烟成为创投热点。单单1月份,锤子科技一号员工朱萧木、同道大叔创始人蔡跃栋、微媒控股董事长李岩等人纷纷入场,相继推出自己的电子烟品牌。
 
创业者争夺的,是一片百亿美元的市场。东吴证券研报显示,2017年度,全球传统电子烟(不包括加热不点燃电子烟)收入为120亿美元,同比增长20%。据中商产业研究院数据预计,今年我国电子烟市场规模将超过8亿美元。
 
疯狂的入场者,蜂拥的资本,这一场景,不难令人联想起区块链刚刚起步之时。
 
和区块链一样,这片百亿美元的蓝海,并不风平浪静。6月26日,深圳通过新版禁烟令,电子烟被正式列入控烟黑名单。该法令将于10月1日正式实施。由此,深圳成为继香港、澳门、杭州之外,国内又一个禁电子烟的城市。
 
再把时间拉回到4个月前。315晚会上,央视曝光了电子烟有关尼古丁成瘾、甲醛超标等危害。一时间,电子烟成为争议焦点。
 
质疑和争议,始终伴随着电子烟行业。这个接棒区块链的投资风口,是否会重蹈区块链的覆辙?近日,比特币重返13000美元,再创两周内新高。沉寂已久的区块链回温,电子烟行业又将何去何从?
 
电子烟+区块链 风口双重奏
 
2018年下半年,邱懿武意识到,机会来了。
 
两年前,从不抽烟的他开始关注电子烟市场。彼时,国内电子烟主要以IQOS和大烟雾型电子烟为主。邱懿武仍在犹豫。“IQOS做的是烟草,(由国家专卖)我们没法做,而大烟雾型电子烟是块小众的市场,未来不一定会有很大的量。”
 
直至去年7月,美国电子烟初创公司Juul获得对冲基金及风投公司Tiger Global 6.5亿美元融资,估值达150 亿美元,成为美国估值排名第六的初创公司,排在 Uber、Airbnb之后。当时Juul占据超过2/3的电子烟市场。而截至去年年底,这家成立仅三年的公司,估值已达380亿美元。
 
Juul生产的是小型电子烟,与大烟雾型电子烟相比,更易携带。去年下半年,邱懿武也开始做小型电子烟,成为鲸鱼轻烟的联合创始人。
 
这家公司的另一个股东,是第二大数字货币矿机制造商嘉楠耘智的联席创始人孔剑平。当时比特币价格从高峰期的近2万美元逐步下行,近七成市值化为乌有。那年嘉楠耘智的年会上出现了鲸鱼轻烟的电子烟产品。
 
鲸鱼轻烟的出现,在一些人看来,意味着投资风口正在从区块链往电子烟迁移。但事实上, 电子烟曾在早期和区块链有过短暂的交集。
 
“2017年下半年,很多做电子烟批发生意的人,做起了区块链。”国内第一批电子烟玩家胡萨(化名)告诉《IT时报》记者。
 
胡萨回忆,2017年,很多电子烟批发商开始转行做“传销币”项目,甚至有一个叫“我是小丑”的朋友,天天在朋友圈刷屏,挂出某些区块链项目的注册链接,“批发商手里有人,可以拉人头来赚钱,注册一个账号就有钱拿,如果新成员买了币还可以获得一级一级返利。”
 
通过“击鼓传花”来赚钱,本就是一个由贪婪和欲望交织的梦。而梦醒时分,则定格在了2017年9月4日。那一天,ICO被叫停,此后传销币、空气币渐渐势弱。胡萨的朋友们最后还是回到了老本行。胡萨并不清楚朋友亏了多少钱,在很长时间里,他们对区块链,绝口不提。
 
从2012年到去年上半年,胡萨圈子里流行的还是大烟雾型电子烟,追求的是烟雾越大越好。
 
2015年起,国内电子烟DIY潮流开始盛行,亚文化圈子VAPE形成。“用发热丝绕成自己需要的体积,接在电子烟雾化器底座,正负极固定好,装上棉花和烟油,便可以设计出自己的电子烟。”胡萨介绍。
 
在玩家们看来,同一种烟油,在不同电阻、不同发热面积的发热丝下,会激发出不同味道。这是DIY的乐趣。
 
胡萨承认,大烟雾型电子烟是一款小众的市场。在他看来,大烟雾型电子烟是“电子产品”,而如今流行的小型电子烟(通称小烟)更像是“日用品”。
 
越来越多的朋友们开始尝试小烟,胡萨意识到,小烟的春天已经来临。
 
价格硝烟渐起
 
这是一个快速起步的行业,也是一块仍待开发的市场。
 
据前瞻产业研究院数据预计,2018年中国电子烟产量超过22亿支,同比增长35%。但与之相对应的,则是电子烟的渗透率不足1%。中国烟民占全球烟民总人数的1/3,但电子烟的消费量不足全球的1/10。
 
和区块链的淘金者一样,创业者们看到了机会,大波涌入了电子烟赛道。前瞻产业研究院数据显示,目前中国电子烟企业近4000家,但其中约80%为50人以下的企业,规模非常小。
 
邱懿武告诉《IT时报》记者,电子烟的核心技术在于雾化芯技术和雾化液的开发,门槛并不是很高,产品好坏更多取决于工业细节,比如能否有效解决烟弹漏油问题。
 
前瞻产业研究院则在研报中指出,目前国内大部分电子烟采用的是ODM、OEM的生产模式。
 
有业内人士表示,Bink电子烟和Relx的雾化芯厂家是同一家,烟油则是两家公司分别研究,这在某种程度上解释了电子烟产品为何同质化严重。
 
低门槛的另一边,是电子烟行业的暴利。该业内人士告诉《IT时报》记者,一支电子烟的售价一般在200-300元之间,普通消费者对这样的定价接受度比较高,而成本在100元左右。
 
“目前电子烟处于红利期。” 邱懿武认为,之后如果被监管,可能电子烟企业还需要交烟油税和销售终端的税,渠道端代理商的利益将因此受损。
 
值得一提的是,记者在闲鱼二手平台及天猫上查询某款电子烟,发现两个不同的价格。Relx一款电子烟产品,在天猫旗舰店上的售价为299元,而在闲鱼上,全新同款产品被挂出了175元一套的价格。
 
在上述业内人士看来,有些企业对闲鱼低价销售不进行管理,相当于企业在做灰色推广,但也有企业会严控渠道端的价格。
 
在杭州某投资机构总经理林绍(化名)看来,电子烟行业的价格战已经开启。不久前,林绍投了一个电子烟项目,该公司的研发团队主要来自华为。
 
他认为,目前行业中产品同质化严重,技术差异有限,在资本涌入的早期,价格战在所难免。“要在这个行业中突破,只能从品牌和市场端发力。”他补充道。
 
邱懿武此前曾对媒体表示,2019年电子烟行业的价格战将会开启,“降价是电子烟产品的快销手段。随着对手变多,竞争加剧,补贴渠道将会成为价格战的常用方式。”
 
两座大山:质疑与监管
 
价格战,是电子烟创业者不得不面对的难题。但他们在入场之时便知道,压在电子烟行业上的,还有两座大山。
 
大多数的电子烟产品都会在包装上面打着健康、时尚的标签。胡萨向《IT时报》记者反映,在把玩电子烟的10年间,他发现电子烟产品的宣传,正逐渐往潮流玩物上转移。
 
这意味着,电子烟正和年轻人越走越近。
 
根据CDC(美国疾控中心)数据,2018年新增150万美国中学生使用电子烟,自2017年以来增长了大约71%,而根据世界卫生组织的数据,接触电子烟的青少年,转变成为烟民的可能性提高了一倍。
 
是否存在这样一种可能:原本并不打算抽烟的美国青少年,因为赶潮流而去吸食电子烟,从而转化为烟民?
 
或许美国青少年们并不知道,看似健康的电子烟,本质是什么。
 
目前,美国、韩国等多个国家将电子烟定性为烟草制品,而奥地利、比利时等国则认为其是医药产品。
 
国内监管机构还未对电子烟正式定性。不过,根据新出台的《深圳经济特区控制吸烟条例》,吸烟,是指使用电子烟、持有点燃或者加热不燃烧的其他烟草制品;烟草制品,是指全部或者部分由烟草作为原材料生产的供抽吸、吸吮、咀嚼或者鼻吸的制品以及电子烟。这意味着深圳政府已经将电子烟归类为烟草范畴。
 
林绍则表示,电子烟“更多是尼古丁盐的消费品”,不应该属于烟草。在他看来,尼古丁盐和尼古丁有着实质性上的差异。
 
据了解,电子烟烟油的主要成分是丙二醇、尼古丁盐、甘油和香精等。其中,尼古丁盐指的是尼古丁碱和酸性物质结合产生的化合物,和尼古丁一样能缓解烟瘾,但会更快被身体吸收和排出。
 
和传统香烟相比,电子烟没有香烟燃烧时产生的一氧化碳、焦油等物质,但这并不意味着电子烟没有二手烟问题。美国FDA一项分析显示,在电子烟的不良事件中,有1/4与二手暴露有关,比如刺激呼吸道、眼部、喉咙,头痛等。
 
苏州营养与健康协会秘书长陈晖告诉《IT时报》记者,尼古丁在进入身体时,会促使体内释放多巴胺,从而带来愉悦感,提高神经的兴奋性,这是其上瘾的机制。
 
有着20年烟龄的胡萨,偶尔也会传递出某种焦虑。他清楚,电子烟含有尼古丁成分,不能说完全健康,但他也会怀疑一些电子烟的负面消息。
 
在中国食品产业分析师朱丹蓬看来,这是由“产业端与消费端之间信息不对等”造成的。消费者有着健康意识,却没有相匹配的对新生事物的认知。
 
正因为电子烟定性模糊,健康方面的质疑,自然随之而来。
 
在国内电子烟产品的宣传中,美国FDA、欧盟TPD认证及第三方检测公司TCT等检测认证的说法常常会出现。然而,《IT时报》记者曾在FDA网站上搜索多个品牌的名字,却并未找到相应的认证文件。即便申请了欧盟TPD认证,但据记者了解,这个过程中,电子烟厂商并不需要提供电子烟的样品。
 
这些认证是否真实有效?第三方检测机构是否客观公正?这些问题需要被回答。正如同区块链行业狂莽起步之时,定义不清,监管不明,之后行业会怎么走,一切都是未知数。
 
“电子烟是大势所趋,国家会立好产品标准,后面监管流通销售以及国家政策介入进来,行业还是会正向发展。” 对于未来,邱懿武显得乐观。据报道,目前电子烟国家强制性标准制定已进入“批准”阶段,预计有望于年内出台。
 
“目前行业还处在早期发展阶段,随着价格战已经打响,今后一定会有两极分化的现象。”林绍如是说。
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