中国疾控中心:中国电子烟用户96.2%是烟民

近些年来,电子烟在大众生活中“露脸”的次数愈发增多。多家数据调研公司的数据显示,短短数年间中国电子烟用户规模就已超千万,那么中国电子烟用户从哪来?
 
近日中国疾控中心在国际权威医学杂志《柳叶刀-公共卫生》(The Lancet Public Health)上,发表的最新论文则能很好的回答这一问题:中国成人电子烟用户主要为传统烟烟民,非烟民极少用电子烟。
 
电子烟
 
中国疾控中心发布的论文《中国成年人电子烟使用情况:2015-2016年及2018-2019年多次横向调查结果》
 
据悉,中国疾控中心的本次研究共调查近40万成年人,是首次从国家层面报告中国电子烟的使用现况和变化趋势。作者注意到,中国疾控中心主任高福、中国疾控中心慢病中心副主任周脉耕均在论文作者之列。
 
论文指出,近年的中国电子烟用户主要为男性和烟民,烟瘾大、想戒烟、了解吸烟危害的人选择电子烟几率更高。
 
“中国对电子烟的监管将影响1690万人的身体健康。针对特定人口量身定制政策和公共教育战略,才是公共卫生界和决策者的当务之急。”作者在论文中强调。
 
中国电子烟用户96.2%是烟民
 
中国是电子烟的主要生产地,在全球电子烟领域占有重要地位。新京报调查数据显示,2019年全球共有218个国家和地区从中国购买电子烟,中国电子烟出口总额为768.85亿元。
 
高速发展的电子烟行业让电子烟与普通大众距离更近,国家也在积极规范电子烟行业,促进电子烟行业有序发展。2019年,国家烟草专卖局、国家市场监管总局联合下发《关于进一步保护未成年人免受电子烟侵害的通告》,禁止电子烟在电商平台售卖,监管跨出了第一步。
 
本次研究采用的是中国慢性病和营养监测2015-2016年(189306人)和2018-2019年(184475人)的调查数据,共包含近40万成年人,样本量庞大且具有全国代表性。研究结果表明,2015-2019年,中国成人电子烟使用率从1.3%升至1.6%,男性用户占比约97%。
 
烟民在电子烟用户中占比极高,且电子烟新增用户中烟民的占比也不断上升。2015-2016年,烟民在中国电子烟用户中占比约93%;2018-2019年,烟民占比约96.2%,即非烟民占比不足4%。作者用加权流行值进行了估算,得出2018-2019年中国成年电子烟用户约有1690万人,其中有1620万都是烟民。
 
“非烟民极少使用电子烟。”论文作者强调道。该结论可以一定程度上打消,大众对电子烟会成为非烟民的“第一口烟”的忧虑。
 
据悉,为交叉验证这一结论,研究团队还曾对全国373781名受访者进行过一次抽样调查,结果显示,在37万余名受访者中,非烟民转为电子烟用户的人数仅有83名。
 
收入高的烟民更可能用电子烟
 
据《国际烟草控制政策评估项目(ITC项目)中国调查报告》,2009年-2014年,听说过电子烟的烟民比例已经从29%增加到60%,主动了解电子烟、改用电子烟的烟民持续增加。中国疾控中心本次研究数据恰好源自2015-2019年,由此可在一定程度上反映出当前烟民的心理状态:在了解电子烟后,越来越多的烟民选择用电子烟替代传统香烟。
 
此篇论文中除分析中国电子烟用户的基础比例特征外,在性别、年龄、地区(城市或农村)、收入等维度对中国电子烟用户的使用模式进行了详细评估,这其中有多个研究维度数据显示:老烟民对电子烟的接受程度更高。
 
作者在论文中指出,电子烟对想戒烟的烟民、每天频繁吸烟的烟民,尤其是每天抽烟超过20支的烟民有更高的吸引力,这表明至少这一部分烟民,认为电子烟能够替代香烟且具有戒烟作用,他们希望通过改用电子烟来获得改变。
 
此外,与瑞典和美国的调查结果相反,受过高等教育或收入最高的中国烟民更可能用电子烟。他们受过高等教育,对电子烟有一个更系统的认知,所以他们反而更容易接受电子烟。
 
“我们的研究表明,在了解吸烟的危害后,非烟民更愿意使用电子烟。”作者在论文中也补充了相关话语。
 
2019年这次监管风波,的确让电子烟行业经历了一场寒冬,行业到2020年年中时超9成中小电子烟玩家(包含山寨和假冒伪劣小作坊)被淘汰出局。电子烟行业这次刮骨疗伤,反而让剩下电子品牌们“剩者为王”。
 
当前,电子烟行业虽然已经初步得到规范,并且越来越多消费者开始接触电子烟,这对于行业来说是一次机遇;但电子烟未来将如何发展,还需要社会各界共同探索。因此作者还呼吁“公共卫生界关注电子烟对健康的短期和长期影响,对不同人群制定差异化的政策和公众教育策略。”
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