美国烟草市场的风云变化

导读:一直以来,美国绝大多数卷烟产销被三大烟草公司控制着。奥驰亚集团下属的菲莫美国是万宝路、Basic等卷烟品牌的制造商。根据美国疾病控制中心提供的数据,2013年菲莫美国占美国烟草市场46.1%的份额,年销量为1351亿支。另外两个竞争者是雷诺美国和罗瑞拉德公司(两家公司近期宣布合并)。雷诺美国销售骆驼、云丝顿和清凉等卷烟品牌,2013年市场占比为24.9%,销量为729亿支。罗瑞拉德公司旗下品牌有新港、箭牌、小牛等,2013年市场占比13.7%,销量为400亿支。另外其他几家公司共占有15.3%的市场份额,销量为450亿支。

近几年,美国市场上薄荷醇卷烟的销量增长显著。美国联邦贸易委员会2011年的报告显示,在当年的美国烟草市场上,薄荷醇卷烟占比为32%。罗瑞拉德公司旗下的新港即是一种薄荷醇卷烟,占美国薄荷醇卷烟市场37%的份额,占美国全部卷烟市场12.5%的份额。

如果美国食品药品管理局设置严格的控制条件,那么美国薄荷醇卷烟的市场前景并不十分明朗。根据花旗集团分析师维维安·阿泽尔的描述,薄荷醇卷烟销量占比较多的公司将处于困难境地。

中国电子烟资讯消息:近年来,美国的烟草产量持续走低。烟草工业信息服务机构TMA提供的数据显示,2013年美国烟草消费量从2002年的4150亿支下降至2740亿支。但是从整体上看,美国烟草行业依旧有利可图。

一直以来,美国绝大多数卷烟产销被三大烟草公司控制着。奥驰亚集团下属的菲莫美国是万宝路、Basic等卷烟品牌的制造商。根据美国疾病控制中心提供的数据,2013年菲莫美国占美国烟草市场46.1%的份额,年销量为1351亿支。另外两个竞争者是雷诺美国和罗瑞拉德公司(两家公司近期宣布合并)。雷诺美国销售骆驼、云丝顿和清凉等卷烟品牌,2013年市场占比为24.9%,销量为729亿支。罗瑞拉德公司旗下品牌有新港、箭牌、小牛等,2013年市场占比13.7%,销量为400亿支。另外其他几家公司共占有15.3%的市场份额,销量为450亿支。

近几年,美国市场上薄荷醇卷烟的销量增长显著。美国联邦贸易委员会2011年的报告显示,在当年的美国烟草市场上,薄荷醇卷烟占比为32%。罗瑞拉德公司旗下的新港即是一种薄荷醇卷烟,占美国薄荷醇卷烟市场37%的份额,占美国全部卷烟市场12.5%的份额。

如果美国食品药品管理局设置严格的控制条件,那么美国薄荷醇卷烟的市场前景并不十分明朗。根据花旗集团分析师维维安·阿泽尔的描述,薄荷醇卷烟销量占比较多的公司将处于困难境地。

相较之下,奥驰亚集团较少受到薄荷醇卷烟相关规定的影响,即便这样,如果美国食品药品管理局进行控制,它也只能眼睁睁地看着效益下降而无能为力。奥驰亚集团的年度报告显示,公司的薄荷醇卷烟占其卷烟总销量的20%。

投资兴趣

投资烟草股票已经开始赚钱了,并且这种趋势将会继续。事实上,一些分析数据显示,相比其他股票,烟草股票能够让股东获得更多盈利。美国烟草市场提供了较高的股息,因此吸引了很多投资者。

史迪福金融(Stifel Financial)公司表示,美国烟草业发展态势良好:价格、销量合理,成本得到控制,利润持续上涨。美国证券交易委员会的报告显示,罗瑞拉德公司的股息收益率达到4.1%,雷诺美国和奥驰亚集团的股息收益率为4.4%和4.7%,比其他公司高出很多。

健全的管理有利于吸引投资者。“菲莫美国以平衡不同收入机制的方式来实现收入增长,包括价格及成本管理、零售股权性能开发、资本建设活动和产品创新等。”奥驰亚集团董事长兼首席执行官马丁·巴林顿在纽约召开的一次消费者分析会议上说,“尽管烟草整体销量在降低,但是菲莫美国利用这些方式成功地稳定了收入。随着时间的推移,每一种价格平衡方式将发挥其最大的效能,因为菲莫美国追求的是长远目标。”

TMA副董事长达瑞尔·杰森说,在过去几年里,美国烟草市场一直以提高价格来应对消费量的下降,以维持其净收益。自2010年起,奥驰亚集团已经先后八次提高价格。5月份,他们又为20支一包的卷烟提价0.06美元,使其价格达到4.52美元。相比之下,在2002年4月,一包20支装的卷烟只需花费2.76美元。

史迪福金融公司分析,价格上涨表明烟草市场尚处于一个良好的竞争环境中。烟草公司希望以减少折扣品牌销量为代价换取优质品牌销量的增长,以获得更多利润。

巴林顿表示,对于奥驰亚集团来说,价格是很重要的驱动器。“万宝路的品牌资产就能够支持其零售价格。菲莫美国精心管理着他们的价格机制,以期得到长期的利润增长。”他说,“每当做出涉及价格的决定时,公司会考虑多种因素,包括经济状况对消费者的影响、价格差距、竞争动态等。”

电子烟市场

TMA预测,到2017年,美国卷烟消费量将会下降到2050亿至2430亿支之间。富国银行常务董事长兼烟草数据分析师邦尼·赫尔佐克预测,到2023年,美国烟草消费量会降至840亿支。

电子烟销量的持续增长一定程度上导致了美国卷烟销量的下降。根据TMA的预测,到2020年,电子烟将会占到烟草总销量的10%。

TMA还估计,今年美国电子烟市场的销售额将达到26亿美元,到2017年可能上升到60亿美元。大多数分析师都同意TMA的观点,即卷烟销量面临新兴的电子烟行业的严峻挑战。“如果美国食品药品管理局的规则不会更多地危及电子烟行业,那么随着生产技术的提高,它们对传统卷烟市场萎缩的影响将进一步强化。”赫尔佐克说。

美国各大烟草公司纷纷通过收购或内部研发的方式加入了电子烟市场。2013年,罗瑞拉德公司以47%的市场份额领先电子烟市场。

同时,随着罗瑞拉德烟草公司被雷诺美国收购,美国烟草业将迎来新的变化。错综复杂的谈判合作可能使美国烟草产业链重新洗牌,加之帝国烟草和英美烟草的参与,美国烟草市场将在并购中打开新的格局。

据富国银行介绍,帝国烟草欲投资71亿美元收购罗瑞拉德的Blu电子烟和云丝顿、清凉、沙龙等卷烟品牌,以占据更多的美国烟草市场份额。帝国烟草董事长艾莉森·库珀指出,并购后帝国烟草将在美国市场从第5位跃居第3位,市场份额也从4%增至10%。

“这将引起更大的竞争,尤其在电子烟领域。”赫尔佐克说,奥驰亚集团也正在将其MarkTen电子烟推向全国,以应对市场竞争。

电子烟的发展将在很大程度上依靠调控。4月份,美国食品药品管理局制定了相关规则,像管控卷烟那样管控电子烟。食品药品管理局还开展了一项持续60天的活动,邀请制造商、零售商、公共健康专家和其他社会人士献计献策,以制定一个适当的规则。后来,其又宣布活动截止日期由最初的7月9日推迟到8月8日。

晨星咨询的分析师菲利普·戈勒姆说:“电子烟市场仍然处于发展初期,由于美国食品药品管理局可能发生的政策变化,使得预测它以后如何发展变得比较困难。”大公司可能比小公司更游刃有余,因为他们拥有的资源更多更广,与贸易商关系良好,而且在执行和应对食品药品管理局监管政策方面更为迅速高效。

 
 
 
 

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