电子烟为什么没能取代烟草:矛盾体的存在:尼古丁令人上瘾


电子烟为什么没能取代烟草?香烟一直是个矛盾体的存在:尼古丁令人上瘾,但没有被法律所禁止;烟盒上印着“吸烟有害健康”以及病变的器官,但烟草的销量从未走低;电视台上禁止播出烟草广告,但华子、利群、黄鹤楼、芙蓉王的牌子日益响亮,而且高档香烟、奢侈品香烟层出不穷,只有烟民想不到的,没有烟草商做不到的;如今香烟的危害已经形成集体共识,控烟令、禁烟令也逐步严苛,比如在北京这样的首善之区,只要有屋顶的地方就不允许吸烟;绝大多数的饭店不允许吸烟;影视作品中,不能出现吸烟的镜头,特别是张雨绮香烟加红酒的镜头更是要绝对禁止的,毕竟,唯美的镜头会令青少年争相效仿。
 

电子烟

大概是因为烟草企业的税收超乎想象,把每年卖出去的华子们连接起来的长度,已然能够媲美于中国高铁的总里程了,更关键的是,烟草不比毒品,它之于人类的伤害不是爆发式的,而是经年累月的,抽一根香烟仅会减少5分钟的寿命。在如此错综复杂的背景之下,管理者控烟的方式只能寄希望于烟民的自制力。

平心而论,99%的烟民都是乌合之众,多数人为了戒烟寻找替代物,如槟榔、冰糖等等,最终的结果是,香烟没有戒掉,又染上了槟榔的毛病,而冰糖又造就了一批批的油腻中年。此外,电子烟曾被寄予厚望,不仅有潜力吞噬传统烟草的利润,更可能帮助人们戒掉香烟。遗憾的是,好好的一个新兴行业,再次被金钱、品质、人性掐住了脖子。

千烟大战,电子烟为什么会野蛮生长?

中国的创业者总有一种急于挤出瓶子的癫狂,碰到好的项目,资本会立即涌入,先奔跑起来,然后再寻找方向。也难怪,中国有太多速度打败模式的案例。从最早的团购,号称千团大战,再到共享单车,有赤橙黄绿青蓝紫七彩神车,这些行业都经历了早期的野蛮的生长,而后大浪淘沙仅仅留下一两个巨头。同样的轮回来到电子烟企业,他们也曾经历野蛮生长,一副傲娇姿态,雄心勃勃地想要从“利润巨头”的身上撕咬下一块肥肉。尴尬的是,1800多家电子烟企业可能一家都留不下,烟民依旧酷爱烟草。

海外的模式常常被国内的创业者模仿,他们坚信:国外所有的模式都是错误的,但总有一些是有用的,电子烟同样起源于海外。事实上,电子烟在美国的渗透率达到31%,而传统烟草公司万宝路入股一家新兴的电子烟企业,使之扩大经营规模,快速盈利,人均年终奖135万美元。相比于美国,中国有更大的烟草市场,加之,控烟的呼声持续走高,电子烟在逻辑上是非常有市场的,包括烟民数量、复购频率的评估都是相当乐观的。基于此,资本迅速涌入该市场,其中,不乏红杉资本等大财团的加盟。

另外,中国生产全球80%的电子烟,有非常成熟的产业链,在得到资本之后,创业者可以非常容易就拿到“现货”,一些代工商甚至能提供“交钥匙”方案,这意味着,创立一个电子烟品牌是非常容易的,最火爆的时候仅仅需要500万就能搞定。

在2019年前后,外卖团购早已经呈现寡头稳定趋势,而共享单车也是一座座坟场,智能手机产业意兴阑珊,使得中国资本无处可去。所以,恰逢此时,电子烟横空出世在短时间内成为风口,也在情理之中。资本能让任何行业野蛮生长。

奄奄一息,电子烟为什么没流行起来?

平心而论,中国对于电子烟行业来说,是一个相当不错的创业环境,他们也确实经历了令人兴奋的成长期。据不完全统计,最高峰期电子烟品牌达到1800个,但遗憾的是,这些品牌仅仅半年的时间就相继倒闭,如前文所述,比外卖、单车更惨的是,电子烟行业可能连一两个巨头都留不下来,整体感觉这个行业就是奄奄一息的样子。

野蛮生长最大的特点就是发展非常快,但只是一股虚火。不仅经营状况会显得混乱,而且连产品的质量标准都不明确,监管非常容易失控。

如前文所述,创造一个电子烟品牌仅仅需要500万,含金量之低令人咋舌。一般来说,好的品牌代表好的品质,比如中华、芙蓉王、万宝路这些品牌都是经过长期经营淬炼而成的,代表着高品质和高档次,但新兴的电子烟品牌,一来没有经过严格的审核,二来有关部门也不允许电子烟在主流媒体上做广告,虽然也叫品牌,但和烟草大佬的品牌比起来,实在是不能同日而语的。在如此廉价的品牌下,电子烟经营者自然也不会把品质放到第一位。事实上,电子烟之所以被寄予厚望,正在于它打着“健康”的旗号,相比于烟草带来的漫天灰烬,电子烟给人的感觉还是比较“干净”的,二手烟也不那么令人讨厌,但因质量层次不齐,一些电子烟液会产生新的有害化学物,危害作用比烟草还厉害,加之,创业者抱着“赚快钱”的心态,不择手段地营销,精美的包装吸引了大批的青少年和女士加入烟民的行列。如此状况直接丧失掉自己的优势,快速倒闭也是情理之中的事儿。

电子烟为什么没能取代烟草?无论是电子烟还是传统的香烟企业,笔者认为都应该尽快倒闭,虽然于国家税收方面会有一些损失,但对于全面健康有着非常重要的意义,况且,人的生命中根本不需要香烟这种东西。烟民可以回想一下,自己抽第一支烟的时候,肯定是痛苦而干涩的,是自己强忍着压力才能学会的。而抽烟时看似缓解压力,实际上只是一种假象幻觉。与其享受烟民的烟雾缭绕,我们更应该享受自己是个“非吸烟者”。

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